Jay Woods:
Good morning. I'm Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and long-term member of the New York Stock Exchange. I'll be filling in for the great Michael Reinking this week. And you're listening to Market Storylines. A big thanks to everyone for tuning in. And as we record this on another volatile Friday morning, let's get to this week's biggest developments. Well, the word of the year is uncertainty. And guess what? More uncertainty, more volatility. More volatility this week than I've seen in ages. Last week, we temporarily hit official bear market territory on an intraday basis, but we never closed below that market of the S&P at 4,916, to be in an official bear market. But on an intraday basis, we did suffer a 21% drawdown and only closed down 18.95% on the 8th of April, from our peak close back on February 19th.
On a sector basis, the damage has been done. We do remain higher in two sectors. Staples and utilities, up 1.7 and 0.8% respectively before coming into today. On the downside, technology and consumer discretionary, they've remain the most volatile sectors and are off 16.4, 16% each. So, it's fair to say this week has been an historical week. It's been the fourth-most volatile week on record, only surpassed by COVID in 2020, the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and the Black Monday crash of 1987. So, let's talk about this week. Coming into Monday, there were fears of a crash. We were off over 4% to start on top of the 10.3 retracement we saw on Thursday and Friday prior. The VIX spiked to 60. Above 40 is extremely elevated, but we were at 60.
Then the rumor mongering. Rumors of a pause on tariffs caused one of the fastest and craziest intraday reversals in the market in my lifetime. Stocks down 4%, then they surged up over 3%, only to fall back to even when that news was debunked. Tuesday, big rally that faded, but another 250 point range in the S&P 500. Wednesday, the bond market took the lead over equities. A huge sell off in bond. Saw treasury yields spike. This was an unexpected event and what may have caused the White House to finally yell uncle. Rates have been the silver lining in this market as yields had been dropping. And many people, including myself, were quite befuddled by what was going on in the bond market.
There was no safe haven and we were just in danger of suffering another leg lower. That wasn't until a few events happened. One, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, he was on TV. He warned of a recession. And within minutes of that and then a White House meeting, the market erupted higher as a tsunami of short covering and buying lifted the market by over 10%. We closed up 9.5% on the day. It was the best single day for the S&P 500 since October 2008. That was enough just to end the week. But no, there's more. Thursday, couldn't keep that momentum going, as we gave back 3.5%. One point, it was looking bleak. We were a danger of triggering a market wide circuit breaker here at the New York Stock Exchange. That triggers when the S&P goes down 7%.
We were down over 6%, but we never got to that point where we take a 15-minute pause. And now today, Friday, as we end this week and look forward to next week, earnings are taking off with the banks. The numbers have been solid, but the guidance has been murky. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan warned the economy is facing "considerable turbulence." I think that's pretty much an understatement. Earlier in the week, Delta, they pulled their guidance, and that may be the theme of this season. We kick off full slate of earnings next week. And analysis paralysis, that's going to be the term heard very often as companies grapple with the continued uncertainty of what and when these tariffs may be.
So, let's talk about next week. And let me take a deep breath because this week has been crazy. But let's focus on the economic front. We get housing starts, we get retail sales, and of course, we get the weekly jobless claims. But let's put it in perspective. This week we got the CPI data, which usually moves markets. And despite some good news on the inflationary front with better than expected numbers, market didn't care. We continue to be at the whim of Washington, as traders keep their eyes on social media and the news wires for anything to change on the tariff front. We do get a slew of earnings, highlighted by Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi on the financial front, United Airlines, J&J, Taiwan Semi, Netflix, and the largest component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and United Healthcare.
So, there will be actional events, actional stories, but can they give guidance? And then let's look at the technicals. As a technician, I look at levels. The traders are focused on it. That 5,000 mark to the downside is psychological, but right now it seems to be a minor support level. Why is it psychological? We like round numbers. But watch 4,916, that is the number that will be 20%. If we close below 4,916, we will finally be an official bear market. Now, two thirds of the stocks in the S&P 500 have been down 20%. We'll look back at this stretch and say it was a bear market. Will it be a short-lived bear market when we talk about it? Will it be official bear market? We may find out next week. And then if we rally, we've seen wild swings. Watch 5,500. That's a level, an area of resistance that traders are watching.
Why? That was an old level of support back to the March lows. Once we broke that, the selling really accelerates to the downside. So, old support becomes resistance. If we can eclipse that mark, then the next level to watch to the upside is the 200-day moving average at 5,775. And speaking of that 200-day. Next week, you may hear the term death cross. That's when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day. It's a great name, I love it, but it's a lagging indicator. It's within 20 points of triggering and may make headlines if you find out that the S&P 500 just hit a death cross. Usually, we tell investors maybe a good opportunity to buy because it is a lagging indicator. The worst is in the markets. But it's something to keep an eye out for.
So, it looks to be another busy week, but with a 90-day respite on the tariff front, a White House looking to claim victories and a market that remains volatile, maybe, just maybe things will calm slightly, and we can focus on earnings and hope soon we can get some clarity. I want to thank everyone for spending time with us today. Remember, you can watch Market Storylines on tv.nyse.com or on New York Stock Exchange YouTube's channel. You can also listen every Friday on the Inside the ICE House podcast feed. So, thank you again for joining me. I'm Jay Woods. We'll talk to you again soon.
Speaker 2:
That's our conversation for this week. Remember to rate, review, and subscribe wherever you listen. And follow us on X @ICEHousePodcast. From the New York Stock Exchange, we'll talk to you again next week inside the ICE House. Information contained in this podcast was obtained in part from publicly available sources and not independently verified. Neither ICE nor its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, and do not sponsor, approve or endorse any of the content herein. All of which is presented solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, or a recommendation of any security or trading practice. Some portions of the preceding conversation may have been edited for the purpose of length or clarity.
