With earnings season well underway, most companies are reporting relatively solid results. I like to look to the largest banks for signs of economic distress. Despite taking significant loan loss reserves, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reported an uptick in revenues in the second quarter and pointed to continued business and consumer resilience. What’s more, the labor market remains tight, suggesting that the combined effects of higher prices and tighter financial conditions have yet to fully penetrate the “demand side” of the economy.

That said, there are early signs that the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation are beginning to dampen housing market sentiment. Mortgage demand this month hit its lowest level since 1997, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. At the same time, the monthly rate of home price declines now rivals that of the Global Financial Crisis. The ICE U.S. Conforming 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Loan Balance Weighted Index – a primary rate residential index that tracks where borrowers lock-in rates each day – is at 7.227, after hitting a high for the year at 7.347 earlier this month. Some think the shortfall in housing stock in the U.S. could offset these early signs of housing market weakness.

Speaking of the largest banks, Jamie Dimon remains one of my favorite CEOs to watch, in large part because he tells it like he sees it. Last week in Riyadh he reiterated his stance that the U.S. could face a recession, but he added another more complicated layer of concern to the equation: namely, that he would “…worry much more about the geopolitics of the world today.” This is a good reminder for all of us that economic and market shocks can come from anywhere.

Taken together, and perhaps unsurprisingly, these signs point to more rate hikes to come – and an ever-narrower shot at a soft landing. In fact, it’s probably time to write-off the idea altogether.

This material contains information that is confidential and the proprietary property and/or a trade secret of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates (the “ICE Group”), is not to be published, reproduced, copied, modified, disclosed or used in any way without the express written consent of the ICE Group. This document is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained herein is subject to change and does not constitute any form of warranty, representation, or undertaking. Nothing herein should in any way be deemed to alter the legal rights and obligations contained in agreements between the ICE Group and its respective clients relating to any of the products or services described herein. Nothing herein is intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice.

The information contained herein is provided “as is” and the ICE Group makes no warranties whatsoever, either express or implied, as to merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or any other matter. The ICE Group makes no representation or warranty that any data or information (including but not limited to evaluated pricing) supplied to or by it are complete or free from errors, omissions, or defects. Without limiting the foregoing, in no event shall the ICE Group have any liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits) in connection with any use of and/or reliance on the content of this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Trading and execution services are offered through ICE Bonds Securities Corporation or ICE Bonds member FINRA, MSRB, NFA and SIPC. The information found herein, has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice, is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product(s), is intended for institutional investors only and is not intended for retail customer use.[VY1]

Trading analytics available from ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data are a point in time output and as such dependent on and take into account the information available to ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data at the time of calculation. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data does not have access to all relevant trade-related data or dealer quotes, and the utility of the output may diminish depending upon amount of available data underlying the analysis. The inputs utilized in each of the trading analytics services described herein depend on the methodologies employed by each such service and may not be the same as the inputs used in the other trading analytics services. There are many methodologies (including computer-based analytical modelling) available to calculate and determine information such as trading analytics described herein. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s trading analytics may not generate results that correlate to actual outcomes, and/or actual behavior of the market, such as with regard to the purchase and sale of instruments. There may be errors or defects in ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s software, databases, or methodologies that may cause resultant data to be inappropriate for use for certain purposes or use cases, and/or within certain applications. Certain historical data may be subject to periodic updates over time due to recalibration processes, including, without limitation enhancement of ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s models and increased coverage of instruments. Although ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data may elect to update the data it uses from time to time, it has no obligation to do so.

Fixed income evaluations, continuous evaluated pricing, end-of-day evaluations, evaluated curves, model-based curves, market sentiment scores, and Fair Value Information Services related to securities are provided in the US through ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC and internationally through ICE Data Services entities in Europe and Asia Pacific. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional information about ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC is available on the SEC’s website at https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. A copy of ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC’s Form ADV is available upon request.

Index products and services are provided by ICE Data Indices, LLC.