Hello, I'm Eric Criscuolo, Market Strategist at the New York Stock Exchange, and this is Market Storylines. Every week we’re here to keep you up to date on the key trends and events driving global markets. We’re recording on Thursday, April 2. Now let’s dive in.
If April 2 rings a bell, that’s because this is the one-year anniversary of Liberation Day. Yes, a year ago today in the Rose Garden President Trump unveiled his giant tariff cards displaying nosebleed tariff rates on nations around the world. We’ve come so far! If you listened to Michael last week, you’d also know we’re just past the 6 year anniversary of the COVID low for equities. He gave a nice walk down memory lane.
Now, with all the chaos, and war and partisanship and AI and SAAS-pocolypses Michael and I have been talking about here, it was an awesome moment yesterday watching with my family as Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen fired up the giant, earth shaking SLS rocket and began their journey to fly around the moon, returning there for the first time in over 50 years. It felt great to be just as excited as my kids, and it was a hell of a way for NASA to kickstart the next chapter of space exploration. We’re here for all of it.
Now, back to the markets, which are closed on Friday, but the monthly jobs report will be published, so we could see elevated volatility into Thursday’s close as investors figure out how much risk they want to hold over a long weekend.
Like Michael reiterated, again, last week, asset prices continue to move with updates on three inter-related topics: the expected length of US actions, the Strait of Hormuz, and oil.
The big move for equites this week came on Tuesday- the end of the month and end of Q1. First, a WSJ article said President Trump was open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That provided an initial catalyst for stocks to move higher, giving the market another potential off-ramp it’s constantly looking for. After more, often diverging commentary from Trump and others, the next leg higher came after Iran’s President said Iran was ready to end the war, but wanted guarantees. With the fire lit for equities, positional factors then provided dry kindle to ignite the rally even more. Flows around quarter-end rebalancing, positional adjustment and hedging added to the rally’s momentum. The S&P ended the day up 2% and back around the November lows traders have been keeping an eye on. Equities followed through with more gains on Wednesday, but ended off the highs as news continued to produce conflicting signals, ahead of President Trump’s speech Wednesday night. He largely kept to comments that he and others in the administration have previously made- mainly that core military objectives have been met and the US is close to finishing the job. However the lack of a defined exit strategy, along with the lingering questions about the Strait of Hormuz, led to futures selling off overnight and crude jumping. The S&P 500 was down as much as 1.5% on Thursday, but then saw yet another rally on hopes of de-escalation after headlines hit that Iran was drafting plans with Oman for traffic in the Strait. As we record this the S&P has basically erased the entire 1.5% decline today. I had to triple check it, but the index is up 3% this week, which would end the steak of weekly losses at 5. Small and mid caps have kept pace with large caps.
Tech is seeing a resurgence this week and leading higher. The mega caps saw strong gains Tuesday and Wednesday and semiconductor and software indexes are up around 4%. Most other sectors are up around 3%, though Staples is only slightly above unchanged as investors pivoted more towards cyclical and Risk-On trades.
The Energy sector was the clear laggard, though oil prices are actually up this week. Like the gains in tech, most of the losses came on Tuesday and Wednesday when Brent Crude fell 10%. As oil moves, so moves equities, and also interest rates. Global yields, which have spiked during the war came back in this week, helping support equities.
Precious metals are also higher for the week with gold pushing back above its 100d moving average, helped by the decline in yields. Bitcoin and Ether meanwhile continue to meander in relatively tight ranges, though look to be making higher lows.
Looking ahead to next week, it’s the calm before the earnings storm. A few retail and consumer-facing names will report results, including Levis, Delta Airlines and Constellation Brands. The week after next will bring the earnings cycle back around as the Financials are first out of the gate.
Monday, April 6, is the latest deadline from Trump for Iran to open the Strait, before resuming attacks on energy infrastructure. The most important economic data comes on Friday with the March CPI print, which will include the Iran war time horizon. PCE for February will be also be important but probably less so given its relative staleness. ISM services, weekly jobless claims and final GDP will also be released, as will the Fed Minutes from the last meeting and the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2026. And we’ll also welcome the crew of Artemis II back to earth next Saturday, after their 10-day lunar flyby concludes.
That’s a wrap for this week. You can watch Market Storylines on TV.NYSE.com or on the NYSE YouTube Channel. You can also listen on the Inside the ICE House Podcast feed. Thanks for joining me. I’m Eric Criscuolo. Have a Happy Easter and Passover if you celebrate, and if not, enjoy time with friends and family anyway, perhaps while watching the Men’s and Women’s Final Fours Friday and Saturday. We’ll see ya next week.