Reddit & Polymarket signals and sentiment analysis: examining elections
Canadian election 2025
April 16, 2026
Key takeaways
- ICE signals and sentiment data can provide actionable insights into developing political events. The alignment of Reddit mentions, Polymarket prices, and dollar volumes moving together may be the template for identifying conviction and momentum shifts in elections.
- The April 2025 Canadian federal election provided a tangible demonstration of how such datasets can signpost dramatic political reversals ahead of time.
- Conservative leader’s growing Reddit mentions coincided with a steady collapse in Polymarket odds. When Liberal leader’s Polymarket price line overtook his opponents in mid-March, it signaled that the race had fundamentally changed — but increasing Reddit mentions weeks prior flagged the shift far earlier.
The 2025 Canadian federal election produced a dramatic and unexpected prediction market reversal. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre entered the year at an 89% probability of being elected Canada’s next prime minister on Polymarket, but closed election day with his victory priced at just 22% (see Figure 1).
Mark Carney — former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada — was elected leader of the Liberal Party on March 10 following the January 6 resignation of Justin Trudeau. Carney was barely registering in Reddit conversations as a potential candidate for the premiership in December 2024 but finished April 28 at a 78% probability of winning the election and was duly appointed prime minister.
The two charts below — Figure 1: Polymarket “Yes” price vs. daily Reddit mentions, and Figure 2: U.S. dollar volume vs. daily Reddit mentions — show exactly how both signals tracked that reversal throughout the spring of 2025.
Figure 1
Polymarket “Yes” price vs. daily Reddit mentions for Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney, December 2024 – April 2025.
Source: ICE. Note: bars = daily Reddit mentions (left axis). Bold lines = Polymarket Yes price, with 1.00 = 100% (right axis).
The most striking feature of Figure 1 is the divergence and change in Reddit mentions and Polymarket Yes prices for each candidate. For Poilievre, the relationship between mentions and market pricing tells a different story: his Yes price collapsed while mention volume held flat or rose, indicating that elevated Reddit attention does not on its own predict direction — and that Polymarket pricing and volume are important to distinguish whether public discussion reflects positive or negative conviction. For Carney, by contrast, both signals move together: the blue shaded area and blue price line rise in near lockstep from January to April 28.
Three moments that moved the market
• Trudeau resignation (January 6): Poilievre's Yes price barely moved despite a spike in Reddit mentions due to Trudeau’s resignation announcement on January 6. Carney's mentions were still near zero: as a former central banker that had never held elected office, the market hadn't priced him in at all as a prospective Liberal Party leader.
• Liberal leadership convention (March 9): the single clearest inflection point on the chart for Reddit mentions. Carney's Yes price jumped from ~35% to ~60% within days, and his Reddit shading visibly widens. Poilievre's declining price line steepens after the announcement of Carney’s appointment as Liberal leader. The two lines eventually cross over in mid-March.
• Election day (April 28): Both candidates’ Reddit shadings hit their largest single-day volumes simultaneously — 11,300 for Carney vs. 4,700 for Poilievre — while Yes prices closed at 78% and 22%, respectively.
Figure 2
Polymarket U.S. dollar traded volume vs. Reddit mentions for Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney, December 2024 – April 2025.
Source: ICE. Note: bars = daily Reddit mentions (left axis). Lines = daily Polymarket traded volume in USD (right axis).
Figure 2 shows where real money was flowing relative to public attention. Through January and February, Carney's Reddit mentions grow steadily while his dollar volume line stays near the floor: the public was noticing him before the market committed.
That changes sharply at the Liberal convention on March 9: dollar volume for Carney explodes, ultimately attracting $17.8 million in contract volume vs. Poilievre’s $10.6 million (a 1.7x gap), with Carney’s single-day dollar volume peak exceeding $1.4 million on election day. Poilievre's dollar volume tells the opposite story: it climbs through March and April as traders were increasingly betting against him as his odds deteriorated.
Conclusion
The two charts show how shifts in social attention on Reddit tracked alongside — and in some cases preceded — changes in market sentiment and capital flows across the two candidates. In both cases, Reddit mentions rose before major moves in market pricing and volume, acting as an early signal of changing narratives.
For Carney, sustained growth in Reddit discussion preceded a decisive shift in Polymarket sentiment: prices rose first, then capital followed aggressively after the Liberal convention, culminating in the largest single-day trading volume of the cycle. This sequence — attention first, repricing second, conviction last — suggests Reddit may have reflected the emerging reversal before traders had fully committed capital
Poilievre, by contrast, also saw rising Reddit mentions, but these coincided with falling market probability and comparatively modest dollar volume, suggesting heightened discussion without positive conviction. In the context of this election, the two signals appear complementary: Reddit mention volume rose ahead of major price moves, while Polymarket dollar volume indicated the degree to which shifting public attention was reflected in actual trading behavior.
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