Your browser is unsupported

Please visit this URL to review a list of supported browsers.

Tall rise building
October 2023

USDX® Report

Managing U.S. dollar risk in uncertain times

Read the article

The U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX) surged to reach a fresh 2023 high at 107.05 during early October trading driven by the increased demand for the U.S. Dollar. Subsequently, the USDX retraced from the high to close the month at 106.49, with a gain of 0.58%, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls surprised the markets when 297,000 new jobs (revised from 336,000 initially reported) were added in September surpassing expectations of 170,000 and raising the likelihood of a possible rate rise before the year end. August data was upwardly revised to 227,000 jobs from 187,000 previously reported. The USDX closed with a loss of 0.30% at 105.78.
  • The FOMC Minutes revealed that policymakers reached a consensus that monetary policy should maintain a restrictive stance for longer, pending stronger evidence that inflation is moving closer to the 2% target. While there was some uncertainty regarding whether interest rates should see one more increase by the end of the year, the majority of policymakers leaned in favor of this action, dependent on forthcoming economic data releases. The benchmark Federal Funds rate is in a range of 5.25% - 5.50%, the highest in 22 years. The USDX closed the day at 105.57 with a modest gain of 0.06%.
  • Core Inflation (all items less food and energy) eased as expected for the period 12-month ending September to 4.1% from 4.3% the prior month, the lowest rate since September 2021. The USDX closed with a gain of 0.87% at 106.37, the strongest daily performance of the month.

Insights provided by

traddictiv logo

Macro Commentary

U.S. Dollar Index® Focus



High impact events per day

8Fed’s Chair Powell Speech
10Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
14Consumer Price Index
15Producer Price Index & Retail Sales
21FOMC Minutes
24S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL
29Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q3 PREL
30Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index

Weighting: EUR 57.6% / JPY 13.6% / GBP 11.9% / CAD 9.1% / SEK 4.2% & CHF 3.6% | Source: TradingView | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to a daily timeframe (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

The first day of October saw a strong start to trading as the U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied to pierce the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands, driven by the ongoing rise in demand for the U.S. Dollar. This rally came as the U.S. government averted a shutdown, and economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve was likely to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first day of trading at 106.61 with a gain of 0.69%, the strongest daily performance of the week. On October 3rd the U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a new high for 2023, at 107.05, the highest in 11 months before reversing. On October 4th, the downward momentum was exacerbated after the announcement of ADP Employment change, which reported the addition of 89,000 new private sector jobs, a considerable shortfall compared to expectations and the prior month's figures. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed down 0.26% marking the start of a three-day losing streak despite the release of Nonfarm Payrolls data for September on October 6th. The data surpassed expectations with 297,000 new jobs (revised from 336,000 initially reported) against the 170,000 anticipated. However, this did not entice the bulls. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first week of trading at 105.78 with a loss of 0.09%.

The bearish momentum continued into the following week until the U.S. Dollar Index ® found demand at a support area 105.47 - 104.96 on October 10th. The level held and the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 105.56, the first close below the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands since July. The U.S. Dollar Index ® traded deeper into the area the following day although lifted slightly after the FOMC minutes were released to close at 105.57. The bulls returned on October 12th after September's inflation data was announced. Core Inflation (all items less food and energy) eased as expected for the period 12-month ending September to 4.1% from 4.3% the prior month, the lowest rate since September 2021. The Consumer Price Index, however, surprised the markets as the pace of annual inflation (CPI for all items) remained steady at 3.7% for the same 12-month period, a slightly higher rate than anticipated. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 106.37 with a gain of 0.87%, the strongest one-day performance of the month. This rally extended into Friday's trading, with the U.S. Dollar bulls unphased by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data falling short of expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 106.43 with a gain of 0.40%.

On Monday October 16th the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower as the demand for the U.S Dollar weakened, to close the day with a loss of 0.35%. The market bounced back on October 17th after Retail Sales data announced better than expected figures enticing the U.S. Dollar bulls back, although this was short lived as the bearish sentiment returned. The U.S. Dollar Index® found support at the daily 20 EMA, prompting a bounce that resulted in a neutral close for the day with 0.01% gain. The U.S. Dollar Index ® subsequently traded sideways throughout the remainder of the week with the daily 20 EMA acting as support and the prior Fridays high creating some resistance. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 105.99 with a loss of 0.39%.

On Monday October 23rd the U.S. Dollar Index ® broke the trading range and traded below the daily 20 EMA to close the day resting on the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands, the first time since mid-July with a loss of 0.61%, the largest one-day loss of the month. On October 24th the U.S. Dollar Index ® bounced back after finding support from the lower Bollinger Band and receiving a boost from positive S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data. Manufacturing PMI data was confirmed at 50.0, marking an improvement on the prior months data and exceeding expectations. The Services PMI data defied the recent declining trend to exceed the prior month’s release and expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day 106.08 with a gain of 0.65%. The bullish momentum continued into the following day and the market traded through the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands. However, it met resistance at the upper boundary on October 26th after strong demand pushed the U.S. Dollar higher following the announcement of GDP Q3 preliminary figures, which indicated an annualized growth rate of 4.9% for the U.S. economy, beating expectations and outperforming the confirmed Q2 growth. On October 27th the bears drove the U.S. Dollar Index ® lower until support was found at the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands. U.S. Dollar Index ® closed neutral, with a small loss of 0.04%. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week with a gain of 0.37%.

In the final two trading days of the month, bearish sentiment returned on October 30th and the market closed with a loss of 0.42%. However, on 31st October support was found at the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands and demand returned. The U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied to recapture all the prior day's losses to close with a 0.47% gain.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month at 106.49 with a gain of 0.58%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® is in a sideways trend on the daily timeframe using the daily SMA (10 and 20) and daily EMA (10 and 20). The U.S. Dollar Index ® was in an uptrend on the weekly timeframe based on the weekly SMA (20, 30 and 50) and weekly EMA (20, 30 and 50).

Source: ICE Connect

USDX® Performance

Spot RatesTicker2-Oct-2331-Oct-23Monthly Change
USD/EUREUR A0-FX1.077331.057290.890%
JPY/USDJPY A0-FX149.832151.607-1.171%
USD/GBPGBP A0-FX1.25861.21460.510%
CAD/USDCAD A0-FX1.367021.38716-1.452%
SEK/USDSEK A0-FX11.0536411.16385-0.987%
CHF/USDCHF A0-FX0.917460.909920.829%
US Dollar IndexDX A0106.904106.663-0.226%
Front MonthTicker2-Oct-2329-Sep-23Monthly Change
Mini USDXSDX-ICS106.606106.494-0.105%
Other ContractsTicker2-Oct-2331-Oct-23Monthly Change
Mini Brent CrudeBM-ICS90.7187.41-3.775%
MSCI World IndexMWL2860.12788-2.586%
MSCI Emerging Markets IndexMME950.4919.2-3.394%
Mini US Dollar/Offshore Renminbi CHM-ICS7.29817.3263-0.385%

Source: ICE Connect

Restrictions on Distribution

The distribution of this document and the offering of any products, investments or strategies mentioned in it may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. None of ICE Futures Singapore, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. nor any of their affiliates (collectively, “ICE”) represent that this document may be lawfully distributed, or that any product, investment or strategy described in it may be lawfully offered in compliance with any applicable laws or requirements in any such jurisdiction.

Disclosure Section

This document does not provide individually tailored financial or investment advice, and no part of this document should be construed as doing so. This document has been prepared without regard to the individual financial or other circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Investors and users should independently evaluate particular products, investments, and strategies and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular product, investment or strategy will depend on a user or investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The products, investments or strategies discussed in this document may not be suitable for all users and investors, and certain users or investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them.

ICE Futures Singapore does not provide financial, investment, legal or tax advice and is not in the business of doing so. Each user or investor should always consult a financial, investment, legal or tax advisor for information concerning its individual situation and to learn about any potential financial, investment, legal, tax or other implications that may result from any product, investment or strategy described in this document.

In particular, any opinion contained in this document (including an indication of any “sell”, “neutral” or “buy” condition) is generic and not a recommendation to take (or omit to take) any action in relation to any product, investment or strategy.

Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key information Documents (KIDS)”.

© 2023 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. The information and materials contained in this document - including text, graphics, links or other items - are provided for general information only on an "as is" and "as available" basis. Although this document is issued in good faith, no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied, is or will be made in respect of the information contained herein. ICE excludes all liability arising from or in relation to the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, fitness or timeliness of the information provided and assumes no duty whatsoever. The information in this document is liable to change, and ICE undertakes no duty to update such information. You should not rely on any information contained in this document without first checking that it is correct and up to date. No information set out or referred to in this document shall form the basis of any contract. The content of this document is proprietary to ICE in every respect and is protected by copyright. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of ICE. All third-party trademarks are owned by their respective owners and are used with permission.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE, and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located at