After a weak performance in the first half of the year, the USDX began July on a firmer note, closing up 0.10% at 96.30, after reaching a low of 96.00, which hit a daily support area of 96.25 - 95.83, nestled within a wider weekly area. A slight improvement in ISM Manufacturing data also buoyed the U.S. Dollar sentiment. While the sector remained in contraction, the reading was slightly better than anticipated, helping to support early-session sentiment. Bullish momentum carried into the following day, despite the ADP Employment Change for June falling sharply short of expectations. The data showed that private sector jobs declined by 33,000 (later revised to a 23,000 loss for June), with May’s number also being revised lower from 37,000 to 29,000. Despite these labor market setbacks, the USDX edged higher, closing at 96.44 with a 0.12% gain. Positive sentiment persisted on July 3rd as Nonfarm Payrolls for June surprised to the upside, rising by 147,000 jobs (although later revised to 14,000), well above market forecasts of 110,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May. While average hourly earnings increased by just 0.2%, a slowdown from May’s 0.4% and slightly below analysts' expectations, annual wage growth remained firm at 3.7% (revised to 3.8%). These figures further supported the U.S. Dollar, with the USDX closing at 96.77 and gaining 0.36% on the day. Trading volumes were light on the final trading day of the week due to U.S. Independence Day celebrations on July 4th. Despite the advances during early July, the week ended lower at 96.64, down 0.21%.

During the following week, bullish sentiment persisted as the USDX climbed higher, closing up 0.57% on July 7th at 97.20. The demand for the U.S. Dollar remained strong going into the next day, with the USDX reaching an intraday high of 97.50 as it tested the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands before easing slightly to close the day at 97.16, with a 0.13% gain. On July 9th, the release of the FOMC minutes added further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The minutes revealed ongoing debate among policymakers about the balance of risks related to inflation and economic growth, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and suggesting a cautious stance on future rate adjustments. After reaching a high of 97.41 and retesting the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands, it met resistance, and the USDX closed at 97.16 with a small loss of 0.04%. The bullish sentiment returned during the last few days of the week as the USDX closed higher. The U.S. Dollar Index ® ended the week with a gain of 0.94%, above the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands.

On July 14th, the demand for the U.S. Dollar strengthened and the USDX traded higher, closing with a 0.19% gain. The next day, annual core inflation (excluding food and energy) edged up from 2.8% to 2.9% for the 12 months ending in June, coming in just below market expectations, while the headline Consumer Price Index climbed to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May and marking its highest level since February. After reaching a low of 97.31 and finding support, the USDX rallied to close 0.54% at 98.34. On July 16th, following the release of Producer Price Index data, the USDX reached a high of 98.60, testing the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands before pulling back to close at 97.99, down 0.31%. The index rebounded the following day, closing up 0.31% at 98.36, supported by stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data. On the final trading day, despite a slight uptick in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the USDX closed marginally lower, but still ended the week with an overall gain of 0.59% at 98.21.

The following week, the USDX traded lower for three consecutive days, dropping below the 30 EMA and the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands as the demand for the U.S. Dollar waned. Despite these declines on July 24th, demand for the U.S. Dollar returned, supported by strong economic data. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 52.9, up from 52.0 in May, marking the strongest expansion in over three years and firmly above both the market forecasts. The S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations and rose sharply to 55.2 from 52.9. The index closed at 97.22 with a gain of 0.30%. The bullish sentiment continued into the final trading day of the week, and the USDX closed with a gain of 0.24%. Despite the late rally, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week with a loss of 0.70% at 97.44.

On July 28th, the USDX experienced its strongest daily performance of the month, rising 1.08%, primarily driven by renewed optimism following the signing of a trade deal with the European Union over the weekend, which boosted confidence in the U.S. Dollar. The index continued to rally the following day as the USDX closed higher with a gain of 0.32% at 98.69. On July 30th, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% – 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The decision was approved by a 9-2 vote, with two members voting in favor of an immediate 0.25% rate cut. The Fed highlighted that economic growth moderated during the first half of the year, unemployment remained low, and labor market conditions were robust. At the same time, inflation stayed above the 2% longer-run target. Preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized data exceeded expectations, showing an annualized growth rate of 3%. In response to the Fed’s cautious yet steady stance, the GDP figures and the release of strong ADP employment change data, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 99.71, with a gain of 1.05% surpassing the upper daily Bollinger Bands. The final trading day of the month ended with a gain of 0.26%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month at 99.84, up 3.56%, marking its first positive monthly close of the year.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® remained in a downtrend on the weekly chart and transitioned to an uptrend on the daily timeframe late in July after trading above the 20 and 30-period SMAs and EMAs.

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