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Fixed Income & Data Services/Fixed Income/ICE Fixed Income Monthly Report
August 2023

ICE Fixed Income monthly report

In this edition, our President of Fixed Income & Data Services Amanda Hindlian shares her views on some interesting U.S. economic dynamics in discussion with Gary Cohn, Vice Chairman of IBM and Former Director of the National Economic Council. And learn how enhancements to our fixed income evaluations process is helping narrow the gap between our evaluated prices and the next trade price, with our senior director of product management Tim Monahan.

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The dynamics of an “OK” American economy

Amanda Hindlian
Amanda Hindlian
President, Fixed Income & Data Services


I recently spoke with an old friend and mentor Gary Cohn for our ICE House podcast. Gary is Vice Chairman of IBM, former Goldman Sachs President and COO and former head of the National Economic Council. During our dialogue, he shared similar views to some of my own on the interesting dynamics at play today in the US economy. These dynamics go some way to explaining why the long-forecast US recession has thus far been averted.

Specifically, Gary pointed to two powerful and opposing forces at play in the form of the Federal Reserve and the federal government. While both have a mandate to support economic growth, their actions are effectively neutralizing each other.

Amanda Hindlian and Gary Cohn on Conquering Obstacles, Convening People and Creating Economic Opportunity

First, the Federal Reserve is acting on a data-dependent basis. To counteract high inflation, they’re following a playbook based on historical data: raising interest rates in a bid to tighten financial conditions and slow the economy. Yet giving excessive weight to historical data has proven challenging for them amidst a situation today that is unprecedented — the record books don’t reflect another period in history when the country experienced a major global pandemic, following years of quantitative easing that left the US economy with zero or negative real rates. Among other factors, add to the mix the acceleration of the development and adoption of certain technologies, supply chain shortages that caused price dislocations and geopolitical issues, and we find ourselves with a unique recipe indeed.

Second, and at the same time, the federal government has continued spending to support demand, amid a rate hike cycle that’s been remarkable for its pace and magnitude. The government is creating projects and putting people to work, boosting wages, in hopes of creating a multiplier effect that supports growth in personal consumption. Interestingly, a key mechanism by which rates affect the economy – the housing market – has been less effective than previously thought, given that over 75%1 of homeowners locked in mortgage rates below 5% while rates were low. Nevertheless, rate increases have still had an impact. Gary suggests that real-time inflation is probably below 2%, and that the US may already be in a disinflationary cycle. In other words: the Fed have likely achieved their mandate, though it may not be immediately apparent in the data.

Fortunately, the market has absorbed rate increases relatively painlessly, with consumers able to shoulder higher costs without a substantial slowdown in economic growth. But while the central bank continues to look to history for a situation without “historical data,” the outlook remains muddy. It’s one where the economy may continue to grow, yet the cost of credit remains high. It’s one where there will likely be housing supply shortages as demand is muted by higher rates. It’s an outlook for an “OK economy.” What’s not OK, are the knock-on risks in a backdrop of high credit costs – like potential bank downgrades, which could spiral into very negative multiplier effects. And in a globalized world, with concerns around Chinese economic growth, can we really afford to have an “OK economy?”


Trading Analytics: applying a quantitative approach

TCA Impact

For fixed income desks, a growing array of analytics mean greater choice when it comes to gauging trade costs, execution performance, and helping clients make asset allocation decisions. But how can the most effective tools be assessed? And what features should traders seek?

The combination of ICE’s Best Execution service and Transaction Cost Analysis service helps users to quantify, in dollar terms, the quality of their trade execution by comparing relative execution across asset types and quantifying the impact of the execution.

Fixed Income in Focus

Automating trading workflows with data & technology

"Faster. Smarter. More Productive." Dwayne Middleton, CFA, Head of Fixed Income Trading at T. Rowe Price joins ICE’s Michele Nicoletta to discuss the future of the buy-side trade desk, the increasing adoption of execution management systems, using data to automate trading workflows and making the order generation process more efficient.

Click here


A leap forward for ICE's Evaluations

Fund liquidity scrutinized by global regulators

We’ve made significant enhancements to our fixed income evaluations process, helping to narrow the gap between our evaluated prices and the next trade price.

Our senior director of product management Tim Monahan discusses three takeaways on ICE’s Evaluations.

Webinar – Wednesday, Sept. 13, 10 a.m. ET

Where do bond ETFs go from here?

Join us for a webinar featuring industry fixed income experts, ICE’s President of Fixed Income & Data Services Amanda Hindlian and BlackRock’s Global Co-Head of iShares Fixed Income ETFs, Steve Laipply, who will discuss the current state of bond ETFs and the growing importance of this segment. Topics may include:

  • While it took 17 years for global bond ETF industry to reach $1T of assets, it took just four more to reach $2T. What are the broad trends accelerating growth?
  • What are the opportunities in the current fixed income market environment and how today’s investors are using fixed income ETFs to actively reposition their portfolios
  • How should investors think about active and index in portfolio construction
  • What is the future of index and bond ETF innovation?

Fixed Income

Manage risk, uncover opportunities, and make informed decisions in real-time with ICE’s end-to-end fixed income solutions. Reimagine your fixed income workflow from price transparency & discovery and efficient execution through to performance analysis.

1An estimate mentioned by Cohn on ICEHouse. Other sources:

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The information contained herein is provided “as is” and the ICE Group makes no warranties whatsoever, either express or implied, as to merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or any other matter. The ICE Group makes no representation or warranty that any data or information (including but not limited to evaluated pricing) supplied to or by it are complete or free from errors, omissions, or defects. Without limiting the foregoing, in no event shall the ICE Group have any liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits) in connection with any use of and/or reliance on the content of this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

This document is not an offer of advisory services and is not meant to be a solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities. This document represents ICE Group’s observations of general market movements. Trades and/or quotes for individual securities may or may not move in the same direction or to the same degree as indicated in this document. Please note that the information may have become outdated since its publication.

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