November 2025
Fixed Income Monthly Report
Chris Edmonds
President, Fixed Income & Data Services, ICE
Reddit and ICE to bring new datasets to capital markets
ICE's Varun Pawar sat down with Uzair Khan, Reddit's senior director, business development, to discuss collaboration between the companies which aims to bring innovative new datasets to capital markets.
Sentiment data: the next generation of market signals and insight
For financial markets, many trading signals — like a sudden shift in public or media sentiment — have long been viewed as amorphous forces that are hard to capture through data. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has altered these limitations, enabling traders to integrate these signals into their strategies earlier than ever. This represents a paradigm shift in the type of inputs financial markets can consider: the emotional tone of reaction to a board vote, or fast-changing odds around an outcome in prediction markets.
Critical to this dynamic is the ability to identify and link trading signals to strategies and securities through a deluge of data noise. At ICE, we specialize in complex datasets — extrapolating pricing for illiquid bonds, quantifying climate risk for municipal securities, and linking our security reference database of more than 35 million instruments to entity-level information. Similarly, in our mortgage business, we’ve taken sensitive, unstructured data and applied a patent-pending anonymization screen to provide actionable MBS data for capital markets.
Continuing this strategy, we are deploying AI within our new sentiment data feeds provided by Reddit and Dow Jones — with Polymarket to be added shortly. These analytics can provide qualitative and quantitative measures of market sentiment, react to live news, and act as a leading indicator of market movements. These complement traditional inputs: for example, in U.S. equity markets, a sentiment feed may assign a score for positive media coverage on Dow Jones to a security, supplemented by a sentiment score based on user-generated content (UGC) from Reddit, and the odds of an earnings result beat from Polymarket. As retail investors exert greater influence in both equity and fixed income markets, this type of data offers timely access to both their views and the public at large.
To extract value from sentiment data, we are applying processes used in our global reference data suite: scrubbing, filtering, anonymizing data, and linking specific words to companies and brands to develop knowledge graphs. This establishes a platform capable of ingesting wide ranges of future unstructured datasets.
The first sentiment data product we are planning is an event-based feed - a streaming service for clients seeking an edge through differentiated inputs. We anticipate this feed will provide insights for systematic research and quant traders, alternatives managers, institutional market makers, and those interested in trade surveillance. Alongside this, we plan to build summary stories for market participants who don’t require streaming intraday updates. Our sentiment data will also accommodate users’ existing workflows, so clients can access the feed or summary stories without needing to interact with ICE through a dedicated terminal or screen.
Down the road, these new datasets open the door to other opportunities. For example, Polymarket could develop specific prediction markets in response to conversations within subreddits. This is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the virtuous cycles sentiment data may propel, with UGC inspiring new market opportunities, which drives content on subreddits that generates new data supporting the creation of yet more markets and products.
Market participants already trust us to deliver over 750 different data sources into their systems across various delivery mechanisms every day. Our proprietary datasets are the cornerstone of our business and a key differentiator we continue to enhance. As AI becomes more embedded in trading strategies, we expect these datasets will only grow in value and can offer an edge to users of models relying on precision, depth, and large volumes of unique data
Muni ETFs: unlocking the basics
Municipal bonds fund essential infrastructure and projects across the United States, but with 30,000 issuers and 900,000 bonds they can be a complex proposition for investors. So, what are the differences between muni and government bonds? Why do ETFs present such a powerful use case for this asset class? ICE’s Varun Pawar spoke to BlackRock’s Steve Laipply to learn more.
Data advancements drive innovation in indexing, climate risk management
ICE’s Varun Pawar and Larry Lawrence spoke with Pensions & Investments about what the company’s ongoing investments in data precision, coverage and timeliness, means for institutional clients seeking to meet demand for specific benchmarks, climate data and broad fixed income coverage.
How are home insurance costs changing across the United States?
Home insurance costs in the United States have risen nearly 90% since 2014, with the largest increases in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Florida. ICE’s new analysis breaks down 10 years of insurance trends, finding that home appreciation, inflation, climate risk, and state insurance regulation are all contributing factors driving prices higher.
Falling rates lead to best homebuying affordability in 2.5 years
The October ICE Mortgage Monitor Report shows that easing mortgage rates have helped home affordability reach its best level since early 2023. Borrower profiles reflect improved financial stability, with home prices beginning to firm as inventory tightens.
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Disclosure
Trading and execution services are offered through ICE Bonds Securities Corporation or ICE Bonds, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC. The information found herein, has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice, is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product(s), is intended for institutional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use.
This material contains information that is confidential and the proprietary property and/or a trade secret of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates (the “ICE Group”), is not to be published, reproduced, copied, modified, disclosed or used in any way without the express written consent of the ICE Group. This document is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained herein is subject to change and does not constitute any form of warranty, representation, or undertaking. Nothing herein should in any way be deemed to alter the legal rights and obligations contained in agreements between the ICE Group and its respective clients relating to any of the products or services described herein. Nothing herein is intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice.
The information contained herein is provided “as is” and the ICE Group makes no warranties whatsoever, either express or implied, as to merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or any other matter. The ICE Group makes no representation or warranty that any data or information (including but not limited to evaluated pricing) supplied to or by it are complete or free from errors, omissions, or defects. Without limiting the foregoing, in no event shall the ICE Group have any liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits) in connection with any use of and/or reliance on the content of this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
This document is not an offer of advisory services and is not meant to be a solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities. This document represents ICE Group’s observations of general market movements. Trades and/or quotes for individual securities may or may not move in the same direction or to the same degree as indicated in this document. Please note that the information may have become outdated since its publication.
Trading analytics available from ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data are a point in time output and as such dependent on and take into account the information available to ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data at the time of calculation. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data does not have access to all relevant trade-related data or dealer quotes, and the utility of the output may diminish depending upon amount of available data underlying the analysis. The inputs utilized in each of the trading analytics services described herein depend on the methodologies employed by each such service and may not be the same as the inputs used in the other trading analytics services. There are many methodologies (including computer-based analytical modelling) available to calculate and determine information such as Trading Analytics described herein. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s trading analytics may not generate results that correlate to actual outcomes, and/or actual behavior of the market, such as with regard to the purchase and sale of instruments. There may be errors or defects in ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s software, databases, or methodologies that may cause resultant data to be inappropriate for use for certain purposes or use cases, and/or within certain applications. Certain historical data may be subject to periodic updates over time due to recalibration processes, including, without limitation enhancement of ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data’s models and increased coverage of instruments. Although ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data may elect to update the data it uses from time to time, it has no obligation to do so.
Fixed income evaluations, continuous evaluated pricing, end-of-day evaluations, evaluated curves, model-based curves, market sentiment scores, and Fair Value Information Services related to securities are provided in the US through ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC and internationally through ICE Data Services entities in Europe and Asia Pacific. ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional information about ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC is available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. A copy of ICE Data Pricing & Reference Data, LLC’s Form ADV is available upon request.
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